How soon do you think Scotland will be independent?

Question details

"Regardless of whether you support or oppose independence, which of these is closest to your view?"

Survey years

14 January 2015: Panelbase survey for Sunday Times and Real Radio with 1007 respondents, 18 and older. Further info
02 April 2015: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1006 respondents, 18 and older. Further info
10 September 2015: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1005 respondents, 18 and older. Further info
14 January 2016: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1053 respondents, 18 and older. Further info
15 April 2016: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1021 respondents, 16 and older. Further info
28 April 2016: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1021 respondents, 16 and older. Further info
26 June 2016: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 626 respondents, 16 and older. Further info
15 September 2016: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1024 respondents, 16 and older. Further info
The figures were originally reported as 37% within next 5 to 10 years, 24% not any point. The poll was subsequently reweighted by Panelbase and the figures amended to those now shown.
26 January 2017: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1020 respondents, 16 and older. Further info
17 March 2017: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1008 respondents, 16 and older. Further info
21 April 2017: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1029 respondents, 16 and older. Further info
31 May 2017: Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times with 1021 respondents, 16 and older.
07 June 2017: Panelbase survey for The Times with 1106 respondents, 16 and older. Further info

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Table

End Date	Jan 2015	Apr 2015	Sep 2015	Jan 2016	Apr 2016	Apr 2016	Jun 2016	Sep 2016	Jan 2017	Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017
I believe Scotland is likely to become independent within the next five to ten years	29%	28%	35%	31%	33%	33%	61%	40%	43%	50%	46%	43%	43%
...but not for at least 10 to 15 years	23%	28%	27%	30%	26%	24%	12%	21%	18%	12%	14%	17%	18%
...but not for at least 20 to 30 years	12%	16%	13%	13%	12%	14%	3%	9%	8%	8%	9%	9%	9%
I don't believe Scotland is likely to become independent at any point in the next few decades	36%	28%	25%	26%	29%	28%	24%	30%	31%	30%	31%	31%	30%

End Date	Jan 2015	Apr 2015	Sep 2015	Jan 2016	Apr 2016	Apr 2016	Jun 2016	Sep 2016	Jan 2017	Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017
I believe Scotland is likely to become independent within the next five to ten years	26%	25%	31%	28%	30%	30%	52%	35%	38%	44%	41%	38%	37%
...but not for at least 10 to 15 years	21%	25%	24%	27%	24%	22%	10%	18%	16%	11%	13%	15%	16%
...but not for at least 20 to 30 years	11%	14%	12%	12%	11%	13%	3%	8%	7%	7%	8%	8%	8%
I don't believe Scotland is likely to become independent at any point in the next few decades	32%	25%	22%	23%	26%	25%	21%	26%	27%	26%	28%	28%	26%
Don't know	10%	11%	10%	9%	10%	10%	14%	13%	13%	12%	11%	11%	13%

How soon do you think Scotland will be independent?

Question details

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