Earlier today Panelbase released the results of their final poll of voting intentions in Scotland for tomorrow’s UK general election. Like the YouGov poll at the weekend, it suggests that very little has changed in the latter stages of the campaign.
The poll puts the SNP on 48%, unchanged from the company’s previous poll conducted in the third week of April. Labour are on 26%, down an insignificant one point, while the Conservatives are estimated to be on 14%, down two, and the Liberal Democrats on 5%, up one. The effect of the publication of the poll on our poll of polls is a one point reduction in the Conservative tally to 15%, but otherwise it remains unchanged.
Scotland may be about to give Labour a bloody nose, but it seems that there is little doubt about where its sympathies lies so far as the choice between a Conservative and a Labour government is concerned. No less than 71% of Panelbase’s respondents said that they would prefer a Labour administration, while only 29% backed a Conservative one. Indeed SNP supporters (86%) are almost as likely to prefer a Labour administration as Labour voters (93%). Meanwhile, amongst those who actually are backing Labour as many as 74% would prefer a minority Labour administration backed by the SNP backing rather than see another Conservative-led government in power.
Still at least it will not be much longer now before we discover whose wishes have a hope of becoming a reality.
About the author
John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Senior Research Fellow at ScotCen and at 'UK in a Changing Europe', and Chief Commentator on the What Scotland Thinks website.