18th September 2013
As regular readers of this blog will by now have come to appreciate methodology can make a difference to the results obtained by polls when they ask people how they would vote in the referendum. So how does the methodology of today’s YouGov and Progressive Scottish Opinion polls stand up to scrutiny? One important methodological […]
18th September 2013
On this day next year Scotland will cast its verdict on whether it wishes to become independent or remains part of the UK. The date has been marked by the publication of two polls this morning, while we also have the first reading for a long time of what people in England make of it […]
15th September 2013
Apart from asking people how they currently think they might vote next year, today’s ICM/ Scotland on Sunday poll also returns to an aspect of the role that the devolution max debate might play in determining the outcome of the independence referendum. This issue was first addressed by aYouGov/Devo Plus poll a fortnight ago. It […]
15th September 2013
After the excitement generated during the last fortnight by some highly divergent polls, today we have two polls that tell much the same story. Some valuable light is shed too on some of the methodological debates that have been occasioned by the recent big differences between some of the polls. First Panelbase have undertaken the […]
10th September 2013
According to Lord Robertson, Labour’s Shadow Scottish Secretary during the 1990s, introducing devolution would kill nationalism ‘stone dead’. In contrast, his former backbench colleague, Tam Dalyell, argued it would prove to be a ‘slippery slope’ towards Scottish independence. With a referendum on Scottish independence due to be held in a year’s time, at the moment […]
9th September 2013
One of the ways in which former Tory treasurer, Lord Ashcroft, spends his money these days is on commissioning his own polls and focus groups. Many of them, such as one he released last week on attitudes to immigration, are unusually big. Indeed they are sometimes big enough to permit robust comparison of attitudes in […]
4th September 2013
What a week! And it is only half over! On Sunday YouGov told us that Scotland was swinging towards No. On Monday Panelbase advised us that the country was swinging decisively in the Yes camp’s direction. And, now, what do we learn today from TNS-BMRB? – that far from swinging either Yes or No Scotland […]
2nd September 2013
Well, at last we have a referendum poll that is generating some excitement. Hitherto every poll has put the No side ahead, and indeed often (as in Sunday’s YouGov poll for Devo Plus) quite a long way ahead. Many a commentator has been wondering whether the contest is already all over bar the shouting. But […]
1st September 2013
In commissioning the YouGov poll they have published today, the Devo Plus group were hoping to demonstrate that the unionist parties need to come up with clear proposals for more powers for Holyrood this side of referendum polling day in order to ensure that the future of the Union is secure. Alas for them, the […]
29th August 2013
It may seem an obvious thing to say, but it is broadly true that the more Scottish you feel, the more likely you are to vote ‘yes’ in the referendum. According to the 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes survey, about 6 in 10 of those who say they are ‘Scottish not British’ want the Scottish Parliament […]
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