Comment


Did Ms Sturgeon’s Call for IndyRef2 Come in the Wake of a Swing to Yes?

14th March 2017

The First Minister’s dramatic announcement on Monday that she would now seek the authority to hold a second independence referendum in either autumn 2018 or spring 2019 was preceded by two new polls of referendum voting intentions. The first came from Ipsos MORI for STV News last Thursday, the second from BMG Research in The […]


Does Scotland Want a Second Independence Referendum?

2nd March 2017

The Prime Minister comes north tomorrow to address Scottish Conservatives at their spring conference. She does so on the back of reports that the UK government is beginning to get concerned that Nicola Sturgeon might opt to pull the trigger on a second referendum, an expectation since heightened by a speech by the First Minister […]


On Sampling Error

10th February 2017

Much excitement was caused this week by a poll from BMG Research for The Herald which was reported by the newspaper under the headline ‘Support for independence surges on hard Brexit vow’. There was then even more of a flutter when in an interview for UK Business Insider I suggested that the three-point increase in […]


Ms. Sturgeon’s Brexit Difficulties

29th January 2017

The last fortnight has seemingly seen Nicola Sturgeon’s options narrow significantly. The Prime Minister has set out a vision of Brexit that is the very opposite of the Scottish Government’s stated preference to stay in the single market and continue to accept freedom of movement. The Supreme Court has ruled that the UK government is […]


YouGov Mark St Andrew’s Day with Poll on Independence (and more)

30th November 2016

Today is, of course, St Andrew’s Day and the deadline for responses to the SNP’s ‘National Survey’ on how Scotland should be governed. To mark the occasion, The Times commissioned a poll from YouGov on attitudes towards Brexit and indyef2 together with Holyrood vote intentions. Nicola Sturgeon must be wishing that it had not bothered. […]


Our Future Focus: Brexit, Indyref2 and All That

1st November 2016

Long-term users of this site will be aware that it was originally created in advance of the referendum on Scottish independence that was held in September 2014. Funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as part of its initiative on The Future of the UK and Scotland, the site was part of that […]


Why did Scotland vote to Remain?

18th October 2016

The outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union was, of course, very different in Scotland than in England and Wales. North of the border 62% voted to Remain while 38% backed Leave. In the rest of Great Britain, in contrast, only 47% voted to Remain, while 53% supported Leave. So […]


The SNP: Not so much a party, more of a movement?

11th October 2016

Once upon a time the early autumn of the average London-based political journalist consisted of three weeks spent at three UK party conferences and then a return to their regular beat at Westminster. The SNP’s gathering during the ‘October break’ could be left to their colleagues in Edinburgh and Glasgow to cover. After all, little […]


How Brexit Has – and Has Not – Made A Difference

18th September 2016

The Sunday Times and Heart FM have marked the second anniversary today of the independence referendum with a new poll from Panelbase. Like last week’s polls from TNS and Ipsos MORI the headline finding is that the UK-wide vote in favour of Brexit has made little difference to the balance of opinion on independence. Nevertheless, […]


Filter by