2nd May 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Hitherto most of the polls conducted wholly or partly in April had been conducted by pollsters whose estimate of the Yes share of the vote has typically been towards the higher end of the various estimates. So it was particularly interesting that, thanks to Channel 4 News, last night saw the first release for quite […]
20th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The headline results of the two polls published today, one by ICM Research for Scotland on Sunday and one by Survation for the Sunday Post, will doubtless be regarded as encouraging for the Yes side. Some of the details too will do little to dispel the impression that the No campaign is a campaign in […]
16th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The poll from TNS BMRB released today has been widely reported as further evidence that the No lead is narrowing. In truth, it would appear to be further evidence that the No lead has stabilized around the narrower level it has now been at for some weeks. First, though, a note about the timing of […]
10th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
In commissioning and publishing the poll from Panelbase that it released this morning (which showed Yes 40%, No 45%, Don’t Know 15%), the Yes Scotland campaign was doubtless hoping to persuade us that it is on the edge of victory in September. Its press release highlighted the fact that, at 47% (once the Don’t Knows […]
10th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The first installment of the latest monthly poll to be conducted by Survation for the Daily Record is published today. It gives the Yes side reason to pause for thought, while the No side’s recent apparent nervousness should be steadied a little. The poll puts Yes on 37%, down two points on a month ago, […]
6th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Panelbase, the nationalists’ favourite pollster, have a new poll of voting intentions out this morning. It has been commissioned by the pro-independence web site, Wings over Scotland, the third such poll the site has funded via contributions from its readers. The poll puts the Yes vote on 41%, No on 46%. Both votes are up […]
26th March 2014 Comment How Scotland should be governed
YouGov have so far been amongst the more conservative of the pollsters so far as its estimate of the Yes vote is concerned. Since September, most of its polls have put the Yes vote at between 38 and 40 per cent (once Don’t Knows were excluded). Its estimate of the degree to which the No […]
25th March 2014 Comment How Scotland should be governed
TNS BMRB’s latest monthly poll is published this morning. It is in fact relatively old. Interviewing began almost a month ago, and finished as long ago as the 9th of this month. However, that does not mean it should be ignored. The poll puts Yes on 28%, No on 42%. That represents a one point […]
23rd March 2014 Comment Expectations of constitutional change How Scotland should be governed The Scottish independence referendum
The latest monthly ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday, published today, will do little to smooth the worried brows in the No camp. Once again the message appears to be that the referendum race has become, from their perspective at least, all too close for comfort. The poll puts Yes on 39%, No on 46%. […]
20th March 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
One of the curious features of the polling conducted since the publication of the independence White Paper last November, is that the one and only company not to register any subsequent increase in Yes support has been Panelbase, whose results had hitherto consistently been the most favourable to the Yes side. Of course, given that […]
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