26th September 2014 Comment National identity and cultural issues The Scottish independence referendum
One of the common features of political polling is that while a plethora appear in advance of an election or a referendum, nobody bothers to conduct a poll afterwards. For newspapers, the most common commissioners, polls are of interest beforehand because they provide a basis for speculating about what will happen when polling day does […]
19th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Clearly the most important features of the referendum result are which side won and which lost, and how politicians react and respond to the outcome. But there is also another question to be asked of the result – how well did the polls do and which was closest to the result? Here is a table […]
18th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Ipsos MORI released the very final poll of the referendum this morning (conducted for the Evening Standard) as voters were already heading for the polls. Conducted over a two day period that ended 24 hours later than the company’s poll for STV that was published last night, it adopted the same methodological tweaks to estimating […]
18th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Yesterday evening saw the publication of what are almost the final polls of the campaign – there is one more from Ipsos MORI due to appear in today’s Evening Standard. Between them they affirmed the impression created by the polls released on Monday evening that the outcome of the referendum is on a knife-edge but […]
18th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest and last Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation, two by Ipsos MORI, one by YouGov and one by Panelbase, and one by ICM. The polls were conducted between 12 and 17 […]
17th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation, one poll by YouGov, one by Panelbase, one by Ipsos MORI, and one poll by ICM. The polls were conducted between 12 and 17 September. […]
17th September 2014 Comment How Scotland should be governed The Scottish independence referendum
Three polls of voting intentions were released yesterday evening and appear in today’s papers. One was conducted by ICM for The Scotsman, one by Survation for the Daily Mail while the third was undertaken by Opinium for the Daily Telegraph. After undecided voters are left to one side, all three out Yes on 48% and […]
16th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, two by Survation, one by Panelbase and one by Opinium, The polls were conducted between 9 and 16 September. The following new polls have been […]
16th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Since our last contribution to this site both the online and offline campaigns have been in full swing. Offline there has been door-to-door canvassing, leafleting, parades, bands, creative art projects, banners, posters, the sporting of lapel badges and T-shirts, countless interventions from industry figures, politicians, and celebrities, and two set piece televised debates between the two […]
15th September 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
This is an updated and modified version of a blog post that appeared at electionsetc.com on 11th September. The vote intention polls for the Scottish independence referendum seem to have been taken largely at face value by commentators, politicians and even the financial markets. In particular, the roughly equal split of the vote between Yes […]
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