YouGov Poll Suggests An April of Little Change

2nd May 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum

Hitherto most of the polls conducted wholly or partly in April had been conducted by pollsters whose estimate of the Yes share of the vote has typically been towards the higher end of the various estimates. So it was particularly interesting that, thanks to Channel 4 News, last night saw the first release for quite […]

New Filter to Help You Interpret the Referendum Polls

23rd April 2014 Comment Site News

It will come as no surprise to regular users of this site to hear that the most visited page is the referendum voting intention time series. This graph presents the results from all polls that have asked the question that will appear on this September’s ballot paper: ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’ One strength […]

Easter Polls Offer Further Hope For Yes

20th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum

The headline results of the two polls published today, one by ICM Research for Scotland on Sunday and one by Survation for the Sunday Post, will doubtless be regarded as encouraging for the Yes side. Some of the details too will do little to dispel the impression that the No campaign is a campaign in […]

More Stability from Panelbase, now for Yes Scotland

10th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum

In commissioning and publishing the poll from Panelbase that it released this morning (which showed Yes 40%, No 45%, Don’t Know 15%), the Yes Scotland campaign was doubtless hoping to persuade us that it is on the edge of victory in September.  Its press release highlighted the fact that, at 47% (once the Don’t Knows […]

Has The Yes Side’s Progress Stalled?

10th April 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum

The first installment of the latest monthly poll to be conducted by Survation for the Daily Record is published today. It gives the Yes side reason to pause for thought, while the No side’s recent apparent nervousness should be steadied a little. The poll puts Yes on 37%, down two points on a month ago, […]

YouGov Reports Its Highest Yes Vote Yet

26th March 2014 Comment How Scotland should be governed

YouGov have so far been amongst the more conservative of the pollsters so far as its estimate of the Yes vote is concerned. Since September, most of its polls have put the Yes vote at between 38 and 40 per cent (once Don’t Knows were excluded). Its estimate of the degree to which the No […]