11th June 2014 Comment Cross border attitudes Expectations of constitutional change The Scottish independence referendum
It has appeared to be the case for some time now that the referendum race has become becalmed once more. The Yes side appear to have maintained the gains they made in the winter, but without any consistent evidence of them having made any further subsequent progress. That message is underlined by the latest TNS […]
10th June 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
We have often drawn attention in this blog to differences in the way on which polls of referendum vote intention are conducted and how far these differences might help account for the discrepancies in their results. Indeed, an extended discussion of the methodology of the polls of referendum vote intention will appear in the next […]
9th June 2014 Comment Cross border attitudes How England should be governed
Yet another ‘referendum milestone’ is reached today. The latest one is that there are now just 100 days of campaigning left before polling day on 18th September – cue another round of campaign stunts and media speculation. Anyway, the milestone has provided us with an excuse to release a short briefing on how people south […]
4th June 2014 Comment Site News
Irrespective of whether Scotland votes Yes or No in the referendum on three months time, its future will depend in part on how it gets along with its near neighbour, England. The SNP’s vision for an independent Scotland envisages various forms of collaboration with the rest of the UK that may or may not be […]
2nd June 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
It is three months since Ipsos MORI last conducted a poll of voting intentions in the referendum. Although the company is one of the pollsters who have tended to produce relatively low estimates of the Yes vote, that previous poll was disappointing for the Yes side, even by the standards of those pollsters that paint […]
2nd June 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by Ipsos MORI, one poll by ICM, one by Panelbase, one by Survation, one by Progressive Scottish Opinion, and one by TNS BMRB. The polls were conducted […]
29th May 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
As doubtless most readers will be aware, tomorrow marks the official start of the campaign for the independence referendum – that is the period during which the amount of money that the two official campaigns, Yes Scotland and Better Together, along with the political parties and anybody else who wants to spend more than £10,000 […]
27th May 2014 Comment Elections, parties & leaders
The declaration of the result of the European Parliament election in Scotland is of interest for two reasons so far as the referendum campaign is concerned. First, inevitably the parties and campaigns will try to impose their own interpretation of what has happened and why it matters for the referendum debate. Second, the declaration gives […]
19th May 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
For the next few days at least, the eyes of the Scottish political world will be diverted from the referendum campaign towards the prospects and performances of the parties in the elections to the European Parliament. Mind you, the referendum will not be off the boil for long; interpretations of what the results mean for […]
18th May 2014 Comment The Scottish independence referendum
Between them the two polls published today, one by ICM Research for Scotland on Sunday, and one from Panelbase for The Sunday Times, probably represent the most disappointing poll reading for the Yes side for several months. The more dramatic finding comes from ICM. They put Yes on 34%, down five points on last month, […]
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